The Gate — 3-team 10-point teaser leg simulator
Which teased side clears?
The Gate is a free 3-team 10-point teaser calculator for NFL and college football. Instead of assuming football margins follow a smooth bell curve, it simulates the full distribution of final scores and preserves the key numbers — 3 and 7 — where real games actually cluster. Load any 2025 matchup, set your projected final and the market spread and total, and every teased leg is scored against the win rate your teaser price requires. A leg that survives 73 percent of simulations is not a good leg at +150. The Gate shows you the gap. Model output, not a guarantee.
Break-even by price
| 3-team teaser price | Implied win prob | Required per leg |
|---|---|---|
| +180 | 35.7% | 70.9% |
| +170 | 37.0% | 71.8% |
| +160 | 38.5% | 72.7% |
| +150 | 40.0% | 73.7% |
| +140 | 41.7% | 74.7% |
| +130 | 43.5% | 75.8% |
Frequently asked questions
- What is a 3-team 10-point teaser?
- A teaser is a parlay where you move each spread or total 10 points in your favor in exchange for a shorter payout. All three legs must still win. Moving the line does not make the bet safe — it makes it cheaper to be wrong by a small amount, and you pay for that privilege in price.
- What win rate does each teaser leg need?
- It depends entirely on the price. At +160, a three-leg teaser needs each leg to clear roughly 72.7 percent. At +150 it climbs to about 73.7 percent, and at +130 to about 75.8 percent. That is the number every leg has to beat before the bet is worth making.
- How does The Gate decide whether a leg clears?
- The Gate simulates the full distribution of possible final margins rather than assuming a bell curve, then measures what share of those outcomes land on the correct side of the teased number. That share is compared directly against the break-even requirement implied by your teaser price.
- Why are key numbers so important in teasers?
- Football margins cluster on 3 and 7 because of how scoring works. A ten-point move that crosses both numbers buys far more real probability than a ten-point move that crosses neither, even though the line moves the same distance in both cases.
- Is The Gate free to use?
- Yes. The simulator is free to use with no account required. Output is a model estimate, not a guarantee of any result.
- Does The Gate work for college football?
- Yes. Load 2025 college football team data and run any matchup. Large spreads paired with modest totals behave very differently from NFL games, and the simulator prices that difference instead of assuming symmetry.